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Will perform less well than Nokia was able to do in the past. Reason 8 - fails on apps and app store. Nokias Ovi was the worlds second most used app store just a year ago. That was replaced with Windows Phone, at best the 8th best ecosystem today, which still a year later has less than half the number of apps as Nokia currently still has on Ovi and Symbian. Whatever you thought of Ovi and Symbian failing in apps, it is far worse on Windows Phone. Reason 9 - the OS is deficient. The Windows Phone OS can seem exciting when first seen with its Tiles but on short usage it reveals how limited and unfinished it is. The tech reviews after using Windows Phone (and Lumia) are quite consistent that Windows Phone is not yet ready for prime time. It may become so in the future, but its not yet nearly competitive with advanced OS platforms out there. Reason 10 - regressing on features and services.

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Where Nokia smartphones tended not to be the coolest and sexiest in recent years, at least Nokia was always known for stuffing every conceivable tech feature onto its flagship phones. The joke was, that to see what will be on the next iPhone model, just look at a 3 year old Nokia flagship.

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The Lumia is the first time ever, that Nokia has regressed in its features, severely. Not just pruning unnecessary tech bloat but literally going back in tech, to specs that were normal on Nokia phones a year, two, even three years ago. That guarantees that any current owners of Nokia will find the Lumia a severe disappointment.

Reason 11 - rejected by business enterprise customers. I also discuss the enterprise corporate side of the smartphone business.

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That market seems a great opportunity due to Microsoft Windows OS and Office Suite integration with Nokia smartphones. Except that this is nothing new. Nokia and Microsoft had done full Office Suite integration years ago and it helped Nokia and Microsoft sell zero more smarpthones into the enterprise space. Reason 12 - poisoned carrier relationships with Nokia. The handset industry is different from the PC industry or home electronics, in that the carriers operators decide which phone succeeds and which fails (witness the short-lived Microsoft Kin). Nokia used to have the platinum-standard carrier relationships a year ago. Those were burned by the CEO last year. Today Nokias carrier relationships are the worst they have ever been. Reason 13 - poisoned carrier relationships with Microsoft.

But even worse, is that Microsoft never used to have good carrier relationships. And yet, with Windows Phone, Microsofts own departed exec admits Microsoft has been making those carrier relationships worse. So Nokia Lumia trades the best carrier relationships to bad ones, and then partners with the company with the worst relationships - that has been making them only worse last year. There is very much more in the article including aspects that are particular to the Emerging World (where half of all smartphones are now sold) and issues to such matters as build quality - Microsoft and Nokia have already admitted to two production quality problems with Lumia. Please read the article for all the details.

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But I said last February that the Microsoft adventure for Nokia was a high-risk gamble. Now we have seen what the Lumia is like, when managed by Stephen Elop, and it is an utter, comprehensive flop - on every single one of the 13 relevant issues that matter in the market success of smartphones.

The Lumia series is doomed to fail. But please read the full analysis: LETS START WITH CONSUMERS Smartphones (invented by Nokia four years before the Blackberry) first were enterprise business tools. Then they became consumer gadgets (also invented by Nokia four years before before the iPhone). What is their proportion?

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Deutsche Bank counted in 2009 that the total global market for enterprise business smartphones was 96 million handsets. The enterprise business market is very stable over time, it will not be significantly over 100 million today, so enterprise smartphones account for roughy speaking 1 out of every 5 smartphones sold globally.

And Blackberry obviously owns a lionss share of that market. So that is why I want to start with the consumer market where almost 4 out of 5 smartphones are sold. What do we do with our smartphones.

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You will fling a couple of birds angrily at some pigs and no doubt say apps. Maybe you will say surf the web. Those sound very reasonable. So lets see what the facts say. (And lets ignore voice calls). So what else do we do? The most used aspect on our phones is not apps or web surfing.

It is SMS text messaging. The second most used funtion is the camera.

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I dont say so. So says ComScore in 2011 - said 83% of Europeans and 68% of US phone owners sent SMS text messages. 58% and 53% respectively used the camera.

Web browser is far lower, at 33% for Europeans and 39% for Americans. Apps are even further down the list, 28% for Europeans and 34% for US consumers.

And if you are curious about email or social networking, they come far below. Is that SMS and camera emphasis perhaps an anomaly? No. Ofcoms global survey just in November 2011 reported that SMS was by far most used service in Europe and the USA, mobile web well below and apps further down the list. Consistently with the above. Ofcom did not ask about camera use, but did ask about picture sharing and MMS. They were used on par with mobile internet and far above apps. So Ofcom is consistent with ComScore that SMS and the camera come ahead of web and apps. And lets be really really clear about this. If you dont trust them Europeans and want the Pew picture, we have that too. A global Pew survey in 2011. In the USA, SMS used by 67%, camera used by 57% and internet surfing by 43% (they did not ask about apps). In Europe Pew found in every country the same order, SMS most, camera second and web third. These were major surveys of all mobile phone owners.

How about specifically smartphone owners? Well we have that data too. Zokem surveyed 10,000 smartphone owners in 2011 in the USA and Europe and guess what was used most by smartphone users. SMS of course!

But yes, apps and the mobile web had switched places (they did not ask about the camera). Whatever we think of the smartphone buyer in the world, the target customer for potentially 4 out of 5 buyers of smartphones, the consumers, their number 1 interest is SMS text messaging.

And yes, I am not saying that. It too was verified in 2011. Cloudtalk surveyed US smartphone owners in July and found 71% used SMS and only 40% used the mobile web (they didnt ask about apps). Note again how consistent the finding is with the above. But Cloudtalk asked what one thing smartphone owners would most want to improve - 90% of US smartphone owners said they would want better SMS text messaging! REASON 1 - MESSAGING MADNESS Did I make my case? Now is Microsoft the expert on SMS? No. The worlds first person-to-person SMS text message was sent in Finland in 1993 on the Radiolinja GSM network from one Nokia phone to another, by a Nokia employee Riku Pihkonen.

Nokia wrote the book on SMS. Even the inventor of SMS, Matti Makkonen finished his career at Nokia (he was my last mentor). And what has been a major feature of Nokia smartphones always - a high proportion of them have had physical QWERTY keyboards in several formats such as the folder (ie Communciator format) and slider and Blackberry style wide candybar.

There even have been exotic QWERTY form factors like the butterfly keyboard. If anything, Nokia was known as the brand that did SMS texting just about as well as it could be done. Did Nokia bother to put a QWERTY keyboard onto its first three Lumia phones?

No! Note, this is a Nokia competitive advantage. Note, 90% of American smartphone owners wish this more than anything else, and its something for example Apple refuses to do with the iPhone.

But no. Lumia series is pure touch screen only. Nokia had a massive competitive advantage that it sim